Perhaps the least talked about factor of Anthony Seibold's demise was the decaying roster that he and recruitment boss Peter Gentle allowed to get worse on their watch.
The next six months will be telling, not just regarding who Manly appoint to coach them into the future, but which players survive what should be a Sale of the Century style warehouse clearance.
For the Sea Eagles to turn the corner, they need a serious renovation, just short of blowing it up and starting again. That should mean that Gentle is also given his marching orders in favour of a football boss with recent runs on the board.
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Whispers that Manly would approach Frank Ponissi – a former Northern Eagles assistant coach before he became the most respected football department manager in the NRL as he teamed with Craig Bellamy to build the Melbourne Storm – would have been music to Sea Eagles fans ears.
It seemed a pipe dream when News Corp flew that kite this week and, almost immediately after Manly chairman Scott Penn confirmed that Ponissi would be an agenda item at the next board meeting, 9News reporter Danny Weidler shot the pursuit down when he posted on X that Ponissi has "zero interest in leaving the Storm".
https://twitter.com/Danny_Weidler/status/2038778223467852146?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Still, the Sea Eagles shouldn't be deterred in finding a better fit than Gentle to reshape the roster.
In the Seibold era, the top 30 squad has evolved in such a way that it created a one-dimensional team. It's lethal out wide and scores more long-range tries than any other NRL team but gets bullied if an early shift to space on the edges gets shut down.
Jason Saab and Lehi Hopoate are both lightweights in the modern era, with most NRL wingers these days built to get their team on the front foot early in the tackle count.
They both regularly get met and sent backwards by the kick chasing unit, meaning the Sea Eagles forwards have further to run to get back behind the ball. Tackle three and tackle four runs often come after slow play the balls against a set defensive line.
That's a problem that should have been on Manly's radar at least two years ago, yet they've done nothing to remedy it. Hopoate has youth on his side and X-factor talent, so the Sea Eagles' investment in him is understandable. But if he's on one side, Saab probably isn't the answer on the other. Why then did Seibold and Gentle extend him in 2024 on a generous deal that expires at the end of the 2029 season?
There are puzzling decisions like that one littered across the past few years. Some of the Sea Eagles' most talented prospects have been allowed to walk while inconsistent players have been rewarded with long-term deals.
Jamie Humphreys was a gun Manly junior, first in the halves and then as a hooker, who was allowed to walk to South Sydney. Latu and Samuela Fainu were touted as future first grade stars long before they left the northern beaches for the Wests Tigers. Kaeo Weekes debuted at Manly before signing with Canberra and becoming one of their best players in a minor premiership team. Granted, Tom Trbojevic was blocking his pathway into the team, but you only need to look at the way Melbourne have used Nicho Hynes and then Tyran Wishart to understand that when you have an X-factor player like that you find a way to use them and don't let them go until some serious money is on the table elsewhere.
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While the exits, headlined by Daly Cherry-Evans, have been concerning, the arrivals have been uninspiring.
Clearly the Sea Eagles are lacking punch up front and depth in their edge forwards but those problems have been building since Seibold arrived and they've never been properly addressed.
They've either brought in cut price veterans who are well past their best – the likes of Matt Lodge, Nathan Brown and Sio Siua Taukeiaho – to paper over the cracks or overinvested in players of limited talent such as Corey Waddell, who they let go at the end of the 2020 season only to bring back in 2024.
Those decisions would have been easier to understand if the Sea Eagles had three or four gun forwards in the juniors who just needed some mentorship to make their way into the first grade team, but of the current squad the only untested young forward of significant promise is 19-year-old Simione Laiafi.
If Laiafi can continue his trajectory, the engine room will start to look a little better next season, with Taniela Paseka joined by Davvy Moale as starting front-rowers and Laiafi, Ethan Bullemor and Kobe Hetherington providing back-up. That's still not a collection of players that would worry too many opposing forward packs.
To make a meaningful positive change in the middle of the field, the Sea Eagles need to find a delicate way to convince Jake Trbojevic to retire.
He is a club legend who has earned the right to wear the jersey for as long as he likes, but despite his spiritual leadership and his impact in defence he would be better utilised in a non playing role. Without his salary on the cap, Manly could make a serious move for a middle forward who poses more threat with the ball.
The spine has potential that won't likely be realised for several years and it relies heavily on the right support being given to 19-year-old Joey Walsh and 18-year-old Onitoni Large. Walsh is further along with his development and should be given opportunities to make his mark in first grade this year, alongside steadying influence Jamal Fogarty.
The Luke Brooks experiment has been a failure. It's unlikely that any NRL club would take him on if he was shopped around but the Sea Eagles would be wise to start talking to him about a move to the Super League, if indeed he still has the desire to continue as a first grade player.
If Manly could shift Brooks and Saab by the end of the year and Trbojevic decides to sail off into the sunset, the Sea Eagles will be in a strong position to make a swift roster transition in the image of the new coach, with Brown and Taukeiaho uncontracted beyond this season and Reuben Garrick heading to the Roosters.
A gun prop, a strike second rower, a seasoned centre and a top level hooker should be on the shopping list.
The right pick to be Manly's next long-term coach is the obvious thing the club needs to nail this year. But it'll be futile if their next five roster moves are as bad as their last five have been.
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