F1 driver with most to lose from Hamilton's absence

Lewis Hamilton's absence from this weekend's Sakhir Grand Prix has turned the race into the most important weekend in the careers of two drivers.

First, and most obvious, whoever steps into Hamilton's Mercedes will have the chance of a lifetime. The car is clearly the class of the field, having won 13 of the 15 races so far this season. Hamilton himself has won 11 of those races, including the last five.

Williams driver George Russell is the early favourite to replace Hamilton, with a final decision expected tonight. Russell is a member of the Mercedes young driver program, and is currently in the second year of a three year 'apprenticeship' with Williams.

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The 22-year-old has impressed in a car that is well off the pace, having outqualified his teammate in every one of the 36 races he's contested.

While he's yet to score a world championship point in his career, he's clearly a star of the future, and widely expected to earn a permanent drive with Mercedes as soon as 2022.

A strong showing this weekend, should he get the drive, would likely make such a move a formality when his Williams deal expires at the end of next season.

The other name reportedly on the shortlist to replace Hamilton is Stoffel Vandoorne. The Belgian drove for McLaren in 2017-18, and is currently driving for Mercedes in Formula E. His Formula 1 chance seemed to have disappeared in the debacle that was the McLaren-Honda of 2017, while the Renault powered car of 2018 didn't enjoy a great deal more success. Two underwhelming years seemed to have put paid to his chances, particularly as he struggled against teammate Fernando Alonso.

Although most seats for 2021 are accounted for, a strong showing from Vandoorne would put his name firmly back on the radar for a spot in 2022.

Vandoorne is the reserve driver for Mercedes, a role that exists purely for this purpose. But Russell's 2020 race experience is likely to give him the edge, assuming Mercedes and Williams can come to an agreement over Russell's services.

While Russell or Vandoorne have much to gain if they get the nod to replace Hamilton, one man has plenty to lose.

With Hamilton sidelined, the pressure is suddenly on Valtteri Bottas to step up this weekend.

The gulf between Hamilton and Bottas has been bigger than ever in 2020. Hamilton has 11 wins to Bottas' two, and a championship lead of 332 points to 201.

Indeed, Daniel Ricciardo, in an barely-competitive Renault, is closer to Bottas in the championship than Bottas is to Hamilton, in an identical car.

Sure, Bottas hasn't enjoyed the best of luck this year, but that excuse only gets you so far. Former world champion Jenson Button said last month that Hamilton needs to have a stronger teammate alongside him, otherwise he'll simply keep winning.

In August, Bottas signed a one-year extension to his Mercedes contract, taking him through until the end of 2021, which will be his fifth season with the team.

In the nearly four years they've been teammates, Hamilton has won 42 races to Bottas' nine, comfortably claiming the world title each year. It's a damming statistic that puts Bottas firmly in the "good but not great" category.

And while there's absolutely no disgrace in finishing second behind Hamilton, any failure to beat a stand-in teammate this weekend will the final nail in his coffin.

Regardless of how highly-rated Russell might be, or the fact that Vandoorne dominated the GP2 (now F2) category in 2015, Bottas simply must be the leading Mercedes this weekend.

Being beaten by a seven-times world champion isn't great, but it's understandable. However, trailing a stand-in driver, who isn't familiar with every aspect of the car, would surely ring alarm bells within the Mercedes team.

Indeed, given his familiarity with the car, Bottas should be reasonably expected to be comfortably faster than his teammate. Even a narrow victory may not be enough to save Bottas.

Bottas has driven in 154 Formula One races. But the 155th race will define his career.