Richmond is bracing for an off-season trade and free agency period of considerable activity.
If the Tigers get it right, they can buck a trend Hawthorn is still confronting following its dynasty.
Richmond has won just one game in 2024 and already used 36 players, which equals the club's total number across the entire 2023 home and away season.
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Just eight Tigers have turned out in all seven matches – a competition low – and only Carlton's injury list is comparable.
In comparison, 19 Sydney players have played every match this season, and 17 at GWS.
Unlike Carlton, the Swans or GWS, Richmond is a club in transition. It's a process which began last year, but will ramp up considerably in six months.
The alternative is grim, a reality those inside the club are acutely aware of.
In terms of experience, Adem Yze's 2024 team sits fifth for average games played, bettered only by Collingwood, Geelong, Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs.
This, while down the foot of the ladder, is not ideal.
The prospect of an extended spell in 'no man's land' is the deterrent for those at Punt Road, who are now charged with accelerating a list regeneration.
In no particular order, Richmond has three big ticket items to attend to as part of its plan.
The first is Lake Grace product Liam Baker, who is a wanted man in the west, with Fremantle leading West Coast in the race for the out of contract 26-year-old's services.
Both WA teams met with him before he re-signed with Richmond in 2022, but rival clubs believe if he does leave the Tigers, it will be to the Dockers and not the Eagles.
Those who work with Baker daily can't fault his attitude and on-field performances this season, but this doesn't mitigate the huge call which awaits him.
Baker wanted to find his feet this year before considering a deal and is not afraid to take it deep into the season, as he did two years ago before he re-signed (in late July, 2022)
But if he does leave, Fremantle has ample draft capital to satisfy the Tigers, with a first rounder tied to Collingwood and another linked to Port Adelaide at the Dockers' disposal, plus a second rounder tied to St Kilda.
The second big ticket item is Jack Graham, who is a free agent. He flirted with a move to Port Adelaide while contracted in 2022, and there is little doubt both South Australian clubs will come for him again.
It's understood West Coast is also keen on Graham. The Eagles have former Tigers national recruiting boss Matthew Clark as their list manager, but the interest is stronger than just that relationship.
So, like Baker, Graham has a decision to make. The compensation would likely sit in the second round somewhere, which helps the Tigers enormously. I'll why explain later.
And the third big ticket item is Dustin Martin, who is edging towards 300 games.
While retirement at the end of the season remains a distinct possibility, Richmond will have a deal for him if he decides to play on.
A late-career move to a rival club – such as Sydney or the Gold Coast – would lead to free agency compensation only if the contract was two or more years, as per the AFL's regulations.
As one leading list official said on Tuesday: "With respect, if GWS receive a late second rounder as compensation for Matt Flynn, then Richmond will get something back for Dusty."
As it stands, the club and Martin's high profile agent Ralph Carr are carefully navigating how it will honour arguably their greatest ever player.
It's delicate given he actively avoids attention and dislikes the additional scrutiny which comes with his lofty status in the game.
But in a year unlikely to produce a bounty of wins, the chance for fans to thank Dusty is an occasion Richmond is eager to nail.
In other contract news, captain Toby Nankervis is expected to re-sign soon. The ruckman turns 30 in August, but a multi-year deal remains a strong possibility given his standing within the club.
It's understood fresh deals for Samson Ryan and Rhyan Mansell are also close to being confirmed, while free agent Dion Prestia needs to get back on the park before his future beyond 2023 becomes clearer.
Prestia was injury-plagued in 2020 and 2021, but played consistently in 2022 and 2023. This year, he's managed just two games and is a week or two away from returning from his latest hamstring strain.
Negotiations have begun to keep Maurice Rioli at Punt Road, and Noah Balta is considered a strong chance to extend beyond the end of 2025 in the coming months.
The prospect of new deals for Kamdyn McIntosh, former captain Dylan Grimes, and Marlion Pickett are conversations for the back half of the year.
Jack Ross is out of contract, and injury will keep him sidelined for at least another two months. His agent has been Julian Petracca, who is moving to Connors Sports Management.
It remains to be seen whether Ross goes with Petracca or remains with his management company at Hemisphere. Only when that becomes clear will discussions pick up to determine his future.
Daniel Rioli is contracted until 2027 and it's difficult to see Richmond trading him unless it got an irresistible proposal back in return. But Damien Hardwick and Gold Coast rate him highly, and if there is one thing we've learned in recent years, no trade is too whacky.
Regardless of which players stay or go, Richmond's draft hand is strong. This is the key to accelerating their rebuild.
It has one first rounder (its own), plus two second rounders, three third rounders and three fourth rounders.
That's nine selections! Though there is no chance the club will use anywhere near that number.
A casual observer may ponder if the Tigers are likely to find anyone worthwhile with six selections after Pick 40, but that's not the point. The club will look to bundle as many of these picks together to move up the draft order.
And it's a good year to do it, with Brisbane (Levi Ashcroft), Adelaide (Tyler Welsh) and Carlton (the Camporeale twins) all very much in the market for points so they can nab academy and father-son prospects., much like Gold Coast in 2023 with Jed Walter and co.
The Tigers can keep their first selection, which is almost certain to be in the top five given their ladder position. But they are every chance to have at least two more first rounders by November's draft if Blair Hartley and recently appointed national recruiting boss Chris Toce conduct shrewd business.
And this doesn't even account for the possibility of Martin, Baker or Graham – or all three – departing, which would hand them even more picks to play with.
In the mid to long term, the Tigers are in a position of considerable strength, even if they have a CEO change and the new Tasmanian club convinces Hartley to join them (though it's understood he is yet to be contacted).
And the current levels of instability – courtesy of an array of random injuries – should not distract from the prospects of fruitful trade and National Draft periods.
The challenge for any club post-dynasty – as Hawthorn has found – is when the downfall comes, to make it as pointed and brief as possible
Richmond has put itself in a reasonable position to do just this.
| Club | Players used | Played every game |
| Adelaide | 31 | 12 |
| Brisbane | 28 | 16 |
| Carlton | 31 | 9 |
| Collingwood | 28 | 16 |
| Essendon | 29 | 12 |
| Fremantle | 32 | 15 |
| Geelong | 29 | 12 |
| Gold Coast | 33 | 14 |
| GWS | 28 | 17 |
| Hawthorn | 31 | 15 |
| Melbourne | 31 | 16 |
| North Melbourne | 32 | 13 |
| Port Adelaide | 28 | 14 |
| Richmond | 36 | 8 |
| St Kilda | 30 | 17 |
| Sydney | 26 | 19 |
| Western Bulldogs | 30 | 14 |
| West Coast | 32 | 14 |
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