The selection calls that could decide World Cup fate

Australia's hopes of securing a sixth ODI World Cup are well and truly alive after making it through to the semi-finals.

Waiting for them is a strong South Africa side, one of two teams to beat the Aussies during the group stage.

Australia comes into the knockout stage of the tournament as the form side outside of hosts India, having reeled off seven straight wins following two losses to open the World Cup.

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Ahead of Thursday's clash, several selection questions will determine the make-up of the XI moving forward and Australia's World Cup hopes.

Marsh vs Smith at No.3

It was the selection call that caused some conflict within the Australian camp earlier in the tournament.

Australia opened the World Cup with Mitchell Marsh deputising for Travis Head as David Warner's opening partner, with Steve Smith at No.3.

When Head returned for the clash against New Zealand, Marsh was moved into the No.3 slot, much to the dismay of Smith, who slid down to No.4.

A look at Smith's numbers in both positions explains his displeasure.

Of Smith's 137 one-day innings, 86 have come in the No.3 slot, where boasts a handsome average of 52.72. Eleven of his 12 ODI centuries have come at No.3.

Steve Smith pictured during his innings against India at the 2023 Cricket World Cup

The other century has come from the No.4 slot, but he has averaged just 36.34 in 26 knocks at No.4.

Before his 177 not out against Bangladesh overnight, Marsh had averaged just 23 in the No.3 spot compared to his 55.4 as an opener in 10 knocks.

"I think after last night he (Smith) probably feels a bit better," said former Australian captain Mark Taylor on Nine's Sports Sunday.

"Mitchell Marsh, before last night, to be honest at No.3 where he's moved to hadn't done that well, he'd only averaged 23 at No.3, Steve Smith averages 53. That's why Smith was upset about being moved to No.4.

"But we saw last night … in those powerplay overs he is dynamic, Mitchell Marsh because he hits the ball and hits the ball hard."

Hundreds for Warner and Marsh in back-to-back balls

Taylor said Marsh's success against Bangladesh came from staying true to his hard-hitting style.

"He had a couple of games where he started to try and nurdle it around like Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne," he said.

"Someone got a hold of him and said, 'Mate, you hit the ball and hit it hard' … that's the way he's got to play.

"Steve Smith and Labuschagne will bat down the order and they can do the nurdling, Mitchell Marsh at No.3 can hit the ball and hit it hard."

Marnus vs Marcus

The composition of Australia's middle order has also been a considerable source of debate throughout the tournament.

In a team packed with power hitters, the accumulation of Smith and Marnus Labuschagne has stood out like a pair of sore thumbs.

Selectors find themselves in an awkward position where Smith, as a former captain and one of the finest batters of his generation, is unlikely to be dropped regardless of a scratchy World Cup campaign so far.

Due to having the likes of David Warner, Head, Marsh and Glenn Maxwell around them, Australia can afford to have a batter with the slower pace ala Smith or Labuschagne.

Whether they can have both is the major question.

Australia's Marnus Labuschagne bats during the ICC Men's Cricket World Cup match between Australia and England in Ahmedabad, India, Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023. (AP Photo/Mahesh Kumar A.)

With Smith virtually undroppable, the conversation turns to a competition between Labuschagne and the hard-hitting Marcus Stoinis, who also offers an all-around element with his seamers.

Taylor said it was a straightforward decision.

"Marcus Stoinis hasn't done enough with his bowling or his batting," he said.

"I like Marnus Labuschange in the side. I don't necessarily like him batting with Steve Smith because they don't necessarily complement each other, but I've got him in the team because he gives Australia an option if we lose a couple of early wickets.

"There's also his fielding, last night he had two great run-outs and a couple of catches. He can make a difference in the field."

The Starc conundrum

Mitchell Starc was undoubtedly the leader of the bowling pack when Australia last won the ODI World Cup in 2015, famously bowling Brendon McCullum in the first over of the final.

Eight years later, Starc has struggled mightily in less bowler-friendly conditions.

Mitchell Starc of Australia celebrates the wicket of Dhananjaya de Silva of Sri Lanka during the ICC Men's Cricket World Cup.

After nabbing 24 wickets in the 2015 World Cup, Starc has managed just 10 in this tournament at an average of 43.90 and an economy rate of 6.55.

Taylor conceded that Starc was "under pressure" leading into the South Africa clash, but expected him to hold his spot in the XI.

Also off-colour in the tournament has been skipper Pat Cummins, who has also managed just 10 wickets at an average of 43 and an economy rate of 6.15.

MARK TAYLOR'S SEMI-FINAL XI

1. Travis Head, 2. David Warner, 3. Mitchell Marsh, 4. Steve Smith, 5. Glenn Maxwell, 6. Marnus Labuschagne, 7. Josh Inglis, 8. Mitchell Starc, 9. Pat Cummins, 10. Josh Hazlewood, 11. Adam Zampa

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