IndyCar's silly season is about to shift gears as teams decide which drivers will stay and which ones they'll let go.
Some of the most high-profile names are reportedly on the move – and it all could come to a head in a matter of days.
IndyCar heavyweights Chip Ganassi Racing looks likely to be the biggest player in the 2024 driver market.
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August 1 is said to be the date that matters most for 2022 Indianapolis 500 winner Marcus Ericsson when he can start serious talks with other teams, having come off contract. Despite success with Chip Ganassi Racing, the Swede looks set to move stables and take a seat at Andretti Autosport.
Assuming Ericsson does join Andretti, what will that team do to make space? According to The Race, they could replace one ex-Formula 1 driver with another. The team has seemingly fallen out of love with Romain Grosjean, whose propensity to push too hard in situations of adversity has resulted in several DNFs and bent cars.
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Ericsson could conceivably stay at Chip Ganassi Racing but has reportedly not received an attractive offer, leading to chats with Andretti Autosport to switch sides. Ericsson has had enough success that he feels he no longer needs to bring a budget to the team.
Grosjean may yet stay at Andretti with another incumbent Devlin DeFrancesco expected to leave, although other options are on the table to replace the Canadian youngster.
If Grosjean does leave Andretti Autosport, that could be his IndyCar career done if he can't find a vacant seat. He does have a drive locked in with Lamborghini for the 2024 FIA World Endurance Championship.
What about the current series leader Alex Palou? Last year, he sought to move to McLaren but was stopped by Ganassi after enforcing an option on the Spaniard's contract.
Exactly where Palou ends up in 2024 remains unclear. His success in IndyCar has his management pushing for a Formula 1 seat, although any serious talks may just be that. Talks.
Formula 1 is notoriously bad at keeping secrets and as it stands there is very little to suggest Palou will find his way onto the grid next year, despite his test driving ties to McLaren.
So what does that mean for him? A move to McLaren and its IndyCar team seemed a foregone conclusion at the start of the season, although that talk has died down to a degree. Still, it seems that's the most likely option at this stage outside of staying at Ganassi.
McLaren has Pato O'Ward, Alexander Rossi, and Felix Rosenqvist on its books. Rosenqvist is the lowest of those three in 12th overall and was thought to be most likely to leave this year if Palou did make the move. However, he was kept onboard after the contract fumble.
The only driver seemingly assured a seat with Ganassi is stalwart Scott Dixon. Countryman Marcus Armstrong looks likely to stay onboard as well and grow from his road and street program to include ovals in 2024. He is the highest placed rookie to date.
In any case, it looks likely that Chip Ganassi Racing will lose two drivers. One replacement being rumoured is that of David Malukas from Dale Coyne Racing. The young American has had flashes of brilliance in his second season. His name has also been linked to Andretti Autosport as an option to replace DeFrancesco.
Indy NXT driver Kyffin Simpson has also been linked to Ganassi, although his results haven't been spectacular this season. His tie to the team is by way of family sponsor Ridgeline Lubricants. Nick Cassidy and Robert Schwartzman have both tested with Ganassi.
So what of the other teams?
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will almost certainly keep Christian Lundgaard fresh off his breakthrough win. Graham Rahal has indicated he's not ready to retire yet and with his father at the helm, it would seem unlikely that he is let go.
Jack Harvey's lacklustre season has him on the outer and seemingly not far from being dropped. Linus Lundqvist tested with the team earlier this year and is thought to be in line to graduate with RLLR.
There's no doubt Agustin Canapino will stay at Juncos Hollinger Racing, although the same mightn't be true for Callum Ilott. He has been something of a standout driver and could be on the radar of bigger teams. Staying seems the more likely option at this stage, however.
Ed Carpenter Racing will keep Dutch driver Rinus VeeKay but then there's a question mark over the second seat currently belonging to Ryan Hunter-Reay. He came in mid-way through 2023 to replace Conor Daly. Whether 'Captain America' stays beyond this season is up in the air.
Meyer Shank Racing could field an entirely new line-up in 2024. It has Frenchman Simon Pagenaud and Brazil's Helio Castroneves but at a minimum, it looks like one will be deposed and replaced by Tom Blomqvist from the team's sister program in the IMSA SportsCar Championship.
Pagenaud, an IndyCar Series and Indianapolis 500 winner, seems the most vulnerable at this point. If the team gets rid of four-time Indy 500 winner Castroneves, there are immediate options for the likes of Rosenqvist, Harvey, or Grosjean if they can't retain their seats.
With Malukas looking likely to leave and Sting Ray Robb rumoured to be on his way out the door, Dale Coyne Racing looks set to field an all-new line-up. Several drivers from the second-tier Indy NXT program have been linked, namely Christian Rasmussen, Nolan Siegel, and Danial Frost.
AJ Foyt Racing will likely keep Benjamin Pedersen despite a rough rookie season that has him last of the drivers to have contested every race to date this year. Santino Ferrucci's place at the team is unclear, although it seems he's well-liked within the organisation.
Only one team looks likely to retain its current line-up, that being Team Penske with Will Power, Scott McLaughlin, and Josef Newgarden.
More may come to light at the upcoming Music City Grand Prix on the streets of Nashville on August 7.
2024 IndyCar team/driver rumoured line-ups:
AJ Foyt Racing
In: Benjamin Pedersen
Options: Santino Ferrucci
Andretti Autosport
In: Colton Herta, Kyle Kirkwood
Out: Devlin DeFrancesco
Options: Marcus Ericsson, Romain Grosjean
Dale Coyne Racing
Out: David Malukas, Sting Ray Robb
Options: Devlin DeFrancesco, Christian Rasmussen, Nolan Siegel, Danial Frost
Chip Ganassi Racing
In: Scott Dixon, Marcus Armstrong
Out: Alex Palou
Options: Marcus Ericsson, Kyfinn Simpson, David Malukas, Robert Schwartzman, Nick Cassidy,
Ed Carpenter Racing
In: Rinus VeeKay
Options: Ryan Hunter-Reay
Juncos Hollinger Racing
In: Agustin Canapino
Options: Callum Ilott
Meyer Shank Racing
In: Tom Blomqvist
Options: Simon Pagenaud, Helio Castroneves, Felix Rosenqvist, Jack Harvey
McLaren
In: Alex Palou, Pato O'Ward, Alexander Rossi
Out: Felix Rosenqvist
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
In: Christian Lundgaard, Graham Rahal
Options: Jack Harvey, Linus Lundqvist, Toby Sowery, Felix Rosenqvist, Juri Vips
Team Penske
In: Will Power, Scott McLaughlin, Josef Newgarden
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