{"id":478230,"date":"2025-11-03T20:07:55","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T21:07:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/?p=478230"},"modified":"2025-11-03T21:18:58","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T21:18:58","slug":"cup-form-guide-payne-backs-german-x-factor-to-fire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/?p=478230","title":{"rendered":"Cup form guide: Payne backs German 'X-factor' to fire"},"content":{"rendered":"

MICHELLE PAYNE is an expert analyst, trainer, VRC ambassador and remains the only female jockey to win the race that stops the nation.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

I think this year's Lexus Melbourne Cup is going to be really interesting with the weather and that changes things a lot and makes it very exciting.<\/p>\n

I'm leaning towards one overseas raider at good odds to salute in the $10 million race, with one of the favourites not too far behind and some X-factors in the mix. \ufeff<\/p>\n

Watch the 2025 Melbourne Cup Carnival live and free on Nine and<\/strong><\/em> 9Now<\/strong><\/em><\/a>.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

*All odds courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 2<\/em><\/p>\n

1. Al Riffa (19)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 59kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Joseph O'Brien<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Mark Zahra<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 17: 5-6-1<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $7 \/ $2.80<\/p>\n

Huge raps on this horse coming out from Europe. He seems to be one of the best horses that Joseph O'Brien has brought out here and he's won the Melbourne Cup twice\ufeff and a Cox Plate. A very interesting runner who has drawn tricky and has a big weight, but likes the wet and is definitely one to look at.<\/p>\n

2. Buckaroo (12)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"Buckaroo<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 57kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Chris Waller<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Craig Williams<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 31: 5-6-6<\/p>\n

Odds:<\/strong> $11 \/ $3.90<\/p>\n

He's flying at the moment. I think he is going the best he has ever been and going into a Melbourne Cup. There's always been an air of excitement about this horse, so maybe we might see it on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

3. Arapaho (15)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 56.5kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Bjorn Baker<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Rachel King<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 49: 10-6-4<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $34 \/ $10<\/p>\n

Needs to improve. He obviously stays very well and likes the wet, which puts him into at least some kind of calculations.<\/p>\n

4. Vauban (2)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 56.5kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Blake Shinn<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 32: 11-5-4<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $23 \/ $7<\/p>\n

Has the ability, but will need to improve on the day.<\/p>\n

5. Chevalier Rose (5)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 55.5kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Hisashi Shimizu<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Damian Lane<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 35: 5-5-2<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $51 \/ $12<\/p>\n

It's a hard one to line up, but the Japanese runners know what they are doing. He is a very interesting runner in the Cup. \ufeff<\/p>\n

6. Presage Nocturne (9)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 55.5kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Alessandro Botti<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Stephane Pasquier<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 18: 6-5-3<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $8.50 \/ $3<\/p>\n

Terrific lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup and certainly can't rule it out. \ufeff<\/p>\n

7. Middle Earth (13)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 54.5kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Ciaron Maher<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Ethan Brown<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 18: 5-3-2<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $34 \/ $10<\/p>\n

I'm just not sure if he is going quite good enough, but you can never rule out Ciaron Maher and his stayers in these races.<\/p>\n

8. Meydaan (22)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 54kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Simon & Ed Crisford<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: James McDonald<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 17: 3-2-2<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $23 \/ $6<\/p>\n

Beautiful lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup. Tricky barrier, but if the rain comes that will bring him into calculations.<\/p>\n

9. Absurde (4)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 53.5kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Willie Mullins<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Kerrin McEvoy<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 29: 7-7-6<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $16 \/ $5<\/p>\n

My pick of the race. I think the barrier is crucial for him\ufeff. Terrific run in last year's Melbourne Cup and the year before that, so this could be third time lucky.<\/p>\n

10. Flatten The Curve (17)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 53.5kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Henk Grewe<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Thor Hammer-Hansen<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 54: 11-10-5<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $21 \/ $6<\/p>\n

He looks to have a bit of X-factor about. He's been ultra-impressive in his starts in Germany and looms as a really interesting runner.<\/p>\n

11. Land Legend (16)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 53.5kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Chris Waller<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Joao Moreira<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 24: 4-2-2<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $51 \/ $14<\/p>\n

Needs to improve a lot. Very interesting to see they have booked Joao Moreira, but I think others are looking better at this stage. \ufeff<\/p>\n

12. Smokin Romans (11)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"Smokin'<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 53.5kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Ciaron Maher<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Ben Melham<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 53: 11-9-3<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $51 \/ $14<\/p>\n

Pretty similar to the above – you need to have a horse like him flying going into a Melbourne Cup and he's not quite there.<\/p>\n

13. Changingoftheguard (24)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 53kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Kris Lees<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Tim Clark<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 18: 4-3-3<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $61 \/ $16<\/p>\n

Not the best lead-up run, weakening in the Caulfield Cup\ufeff, but it's not impossible for him to turn things around.<\/p>\n

14. Half Yours (8)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 53kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Tony & Calvin McEvoy<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Jamie Melham<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 15: 7-3-0<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $7.50 \/ $2.90<\/p>\n

Terrific chance from a great barrier. Really comes into it even more if the rain comes and looks to be a huge chance. \ufeff<\/p>\n

15. More Felons (23)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"More<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 53kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Chris Waller<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Tommy Berry<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 24: 6-3-0<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $51 \/ $14<\/p>\n

Building beautifully and the wet track will be no problem for him. Definitely has to be given a hope.<\/p>\n

16. Onesmoothoperator (6)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"Onesmoothoperator,<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 53kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Brian Ellison<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Harry Coffey<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 51: 6-11-7<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $31 \/ $9<\/p>\n

Ran terrific in the lead-up with a last start win. Certainly comes into calculations.<\/p>\n

17. Furthur (7)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 52kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Andrew Balding<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Michael Dee<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 8-2-2-0<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $31 \/ $8<\/p>\n

I don't think they would have brought him out here just for fun, but it does need to improve to be a chance.<\/p>\n

18. Parchment Party (3)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 52kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: William Mott<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: John Valezquez<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 22: 8-2-2<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $51 \/ $14<\/p>\n

Very interesting runner, first American horse to come out. Looks a really impressive type of\ufeff horse, big and grand. Interesting to see him back on grass from the dirt.<\/p>\n

19. Athabascan (1)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 51.5kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Declan Bates<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 39: 4-6-4<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $61 \/ $16<\/p>\n

Has been building really well and an interesting runner having drawn barrier one. Certainly in with a hope on a light weight.<\/p>\n

20. Goodie Two Shoes (20)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 51.5kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Joseph O'Brien\ufeff<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Wayne Lordan<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 26: 13-0-7<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $31 \/ $9<\/p>\n

Similar to some of the other runners brought out here, they wouldn't have brought her out here for fun and she's definitely a light weight hope.<\/p>\n

21. River Of Stars (14)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 51.5kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Chris Waller<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Beau Mertens<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 22: 4-6-5<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $16 \/ $4.60<\/p>\n

Progressing really well and looks a nice light weight chance. \ufeff<\/p>\n

22. Royal Supremacy (21)<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 51kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Ciaron Maher<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Robbie Dolan<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 17: 6-4-3<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $26 \/ $8<\/p>\n

Very similar, progressing well and looks a good chance with last year's Melbourne Cup winning jockey on board at a light weight. \ufeff<\/p>\n

23. Torranzino (18)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 51kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Paul Preusker<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Celine Gaudray<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 33: 6-7-2<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $34 \/ $9<\/p>\n

Good tough stayer who is hitting form at the right time and is a\ufeffnother nice chance at a low weight.<\/p>\n

24. Valiant King (10)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"Valiant<\/p>\n

Weight<\/strong>: 51kg<\/p>\n

Trainer<\/strong>: Chris Waller<\/p>\n

Jockey<\/strong>: Jye McNeil<\/p>\n

Career<\/strong>: 20: 2-4-2<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong>: $9.50 \/ $3.40<\/p>\n

Lead-up runs have been terrific, probably couldn't have been much better. Looks to be a huge chance with the light weight.<\/p>\n

Michelle Payne's Melbourne Cup tips\ufeff<\/h3>\n

My top selection is Absurde ($23)\ufeff and I think the barrier is the key for him.<\/p>\n

\ufeffMy second pick is Jamie Melham's mount Half Yours ($6.50) with the barrier and the way the horse keeps stepping up to the mark each time.<\/p>\n

From there, I have put in Flatten The Curve ($26) and I think there's an X-factor about this guy and I'm very excited to see him take on the Cup.<\/p>\n

It's very hard, there are so many chances, but I'm leaning towards Celine Gaudray and Torranzino ($34) to give her a good thrill and nice finish. \ufeff<\/p>\n

1. ABSURDE<\/strong><\/p>\n

2. HALF YOURS<\/strong><\/p>\n

3. FLATTEN THE CURVE<\/strong><\/p>\n

4. TORRANZINO\ufeff<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

MICHELLE PAYNE is an expert analyst, trainer, VRC ambassador and remains the only female jockey to win the race that stops the nation. I think […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":478143,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478230"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=478230"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478230\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":478239,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478230\/revisions\/478239"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/478143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=478230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=478230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=478230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}