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SIMON O'DONNELL is a racing commentator, the founder of<\/strong><\/em> Wingara Thoroughbreds<\/em><\/strong><\/a> and a former Australian international cricketer.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n I think the Lexus Melbourne Cup<\/a> is going to be a good pressure race this year.<\/p>\n With the influence of horses from wide that are good fancies and horses inside that want to be on speed means there's not a lot of time to sit around and think about things.<\/p>\n There are plenty of overseas runners who have queries over them for different reasons, but one of them is in with a red-hot chance of taking out the great race. \ufeff<\/p>\n Watch the 2025 Melbourne Cup Carnival live and free on Nine and<\/strong><\/em> 9Now<\/strong><\/em><\/a>.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n *All odds courtesy of TAB as of Sunday 10.30am<\/em><\/p>\n READ MORE: <\/strong>Michelle Payne's 2025 Melbourne Cup form guide: 'Crucial' reason $23 shot can upset the favourites<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n READ MORE: <\/strong>$10 million up for grabs: Full prize money breakdown for the 2025 Melbourne Cup<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 59kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Joseph O'Brien<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Mark Zahra<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 17: 5-6-1<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $9 \/ $3.30<\/p>\n Probably one of the better Irish stayers that has arrived here since Vintage Crop – if not the \ufeffbest. He has three things going for it – Joseph O'Brien, Mark Zahra and the horse himself. The two things against him are barrier 19 and 59kg, which is a massive ask for a horse to win the Melbourne Cup from that gate at that weight. But if anyone can do it, this could be the horse that will be able to defy the odds. I don't think he will start as favourite because of those issues, but I still expect him to run a mighty race.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 57kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Chris Waller<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Craig Williams<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 31: 5-6-6<\/p>\n Odds:<\/strong> $9 \/ $3.30<\/p>\n \ufeffLook, his Australian form in big races has been really good the last 12 months, taking note of the 2024 Caulfield Cup and the recent Cox Plate. I've always had a question mark over whether he will run the two miles.<\/a> He had a terrible run in transit last year. You have to keep him safe, but I think the question mark to me is whether he is the sort of horse that can run two miles and to my eye, he's not. We will find the true indicator on Tuesday when he jumps from barrier 12, which will give him his best chance.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 56.5kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Bjorn Baker<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Rachel King<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 49: 10-6-4<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $51 \/ $14<\/p>\n Carrying plenty of weight and looking at the form coming in after the Sydney Cup win, I just haven't liked what I have seen during the spring, particularly in the Bendigo Cup last week. I don't think the horse is going as well as it did when it won the Sydney Cup and that presents plenty of challenges to give it a chance to win the Melbourne Cup.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 56.5kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Blake Shinn<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 32: 11-5-4<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $26 \/ $8<\/p>\n New coaches this year \ufeffin Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. We've seen him twice before in the Melbourne Cup with massive raves and he hasn't delivered<\/a>, so it's put up or shut up time for Vauban. Plenty of excuses have been made of his last two attempts, but this one he just has to put his best foot forward. Very talented stayer, two goes at a Cup for two failures – do you give him a third chance? Your decision, not mine.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 55.5kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Hisashi Shimizu<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Damian Lane<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 35: 5-5-2<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $31 \/ $9<\/p>\n This trainer knows what it takes for a horse to win here. He bought Mer De Glaces over to win the Caulfield Cup six years ago. Damian Lane is obviously a very good rider too. However, I don't think this is any Delta Blues or Pop Rock. His last 12 months have been ordinary and particularly with the rain looking like arriving, I must admit I think he is one of the least chances in the race this year.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 55.5kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Alessandro Botti<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Stephane Pasquier<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 18: 6-5-3<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $8.50 \/ $3.20<\/p>\n I think this horse will jump favourite when they open the gates. His run in the Caulfield Cup was superb and his run in the Sumbe Prix Kergorlay Stakes in France prior to coming here was very good and that is an excellent formline. All things being equal and with the rain coming, with the form he has brought here and continued on with, I think he will be the one who jumps favourite and is a very good top-three chance.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 54.5kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Ciaron Maher<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Ethan Brown<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 18: 5-3-2<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $34 \/ $10<\/p>\n He had really good form as a three-year-old in Europe, but I probably haven't seen him show the quality that I think can win a Melbourne Cup. Maybe he needs a little bit more time to find himself in this country and I would get a surprise if he was the one to win. I just don't think he is going well enough to take out this race.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 54kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Simon & Ed Crisford<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: James McDonald<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 17: 3-2-2<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $15 \/ $4.80<\/p>\n Everyone has been singing from the trees about this horse and I'm not sure what they are singing about. They keep making excuses about why he didn't win instead of the horse actually going out and winning. He just doesn't seem to get the job done when he needs to. His run in the Caulfield Cup I thought was probably on the better side of plain and he doesn't seem to be a horse that performs in the big dance to me when required. He does have James McDonald and a little bit of give in the ground should help him, but against that is barrier 22. If you like him, I'm not saying don't touch him – but I ain't.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 53.5kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Willie Mullins<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Kerrin McEvoy<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 29: 7-7-6<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $23 \/ $7<\/p>\n Caulfield Cup run was OK. He's a wonderful horse trainer Willie Mullins and he has done different things with Absurde this year to get him back to a Melbourne Cup. I genuinely give him another chance of winning the race and barrier four is going to be a great help and a bit of sting out of the ground will be a great help. It is tough for horses to keep coming back to Melbourne Cups and getting better results. He needs to find a little bit of X-factor and if the change of routine has done that, he's a genuine chance.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 53.5kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Henk Grewe<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Thor Hammer-Hansen<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 54: 11-10-5<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $26 \/ $8<\/p>\n He was going horribly about 12 months ago and then went to a new trainer in Germany and hasn't stopped winning races. He could be a real surprise packet, but barrier 17 is going to be difficult. With the rain predicted in Melbourne though, conditions are there to suit. He's a genuine watch and I wouldn't be surprised if he finished in the top five.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 53.5kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Chris Waller<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Joao Moreira<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 24: 4-2-2<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $81 \/ $20<\/p>\n He just isn't going well enough and barrier 16 is not going to help either. Joao Moreira is a great rider and Chris Waller is a great trainer, but I think they will be tested here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 53.5kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Ciaron Maher<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Ben Melham<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 53: 11-9-3<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $81 \/ $20<\/p>\n Having another crack at a Melbourne Cup, but I question whether he runs 3200m and I think his best is shorter than that. He's now nine years of age, so there are plenty of reasons to question whether Smokin Romans can finish in the top-10 and I think that would be the best result that could happen for him this year.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 53kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Kris Lees<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Tim Clark<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 18: 4-3-3<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $81 \/ $20<\/p>\n No luck here and the horse has only been going fair at best. He's well-bred to run this sort of trip, but the way he is going at the moment and his run in the Geelong Cup, I think it's going to be a real challenge for him to win this.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 53kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Tony & Calvin McEvoy<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Jamie Melham<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 15: 7-3-0<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $6.50 \/ $2.70<\/p>\n He just keeps putting up. Caulfield Cup and Turnbull Stakes winner, does all the things you need to do coming into the race. It's his first time at 3200m and I always worry when the grand final was a few weeks ago but then they say 'oh no, we will keep going' but you're probably always going to do that if the horse is going well enough. Genuinely should be right up there in the top-three of betting, he's in a good barrier<\/a> and he will get a good ride from Jamie Melham and he should run the 3200m.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 53kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Chris Waller<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Tommy Berry<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 24: 6-3-0<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $41 \/ $11<\/p>\n This guy has got a fantastic pedigree to run well in a Melbourne Cup, but is at a stage where I don't think he's going well enough.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 53kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Brian Ellison<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Harry Coffey<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 51: 6-11-7<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $19 \/ $6<\/p>\n Coming back for another Melbourne Cup and his form coming from the Moonee Valley Cup win is very good. \ufeffI do think that he seems to be a more settled horse this year than what he seemed to be last year and that's helped him perform to the level that he was. He came from well back on Cox Plate weekend to win that Moonee Valley Cup, he did it really well. I expect this to be his best chance to run a great race. Whether he can be in the top-five is the question mark, but that wouldn't surprise me at all.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 52kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: Andrew Balding<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: Michael Dee<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 8-2-2-0<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $21 \/ $6<\/p>\n He's a good trainer Andrew Balding and he knows his horses. He has probably come in a little bit under the radar, there hasn't been a lot of attention on him and I think that Andrew would enjoy that leading into the race. I do think the English St Leger this year [where he ran sixth] was anywhere near as good as the Irish St Leger in which Al Riffa ran and they are not even on the same racecourse. Some sting out of the ground and a good barrier will help him and he will have a trainer that's ready to have his horse run this journey. I think he will acquit himself well and a top-10 finish would definitely be no surprise but whether he's got the quality for higher, we will find out.<\/p>\n Weight<\/strong>: 52kg<\/p>\n Trainer<\/strong>: William Mott<\/p>\n Jockey<\/strong>: John Valezquez<\/p>\n Career<\/strong>: 22: 8-2-2<\/p>\n Odds<\/strong>: $51 \/ $14<\/p>\n He wasn't showing anything and then once he moved out to longer, stamina journeys in the USA, he has hit the spot. He's a dirt horse and I'm not sure how dirt horses go on grass and I'm not sure I want to experiment with that on Tuesday. His form reads OK but the class of stayer where he has been aren't as good and he's been running on surfaces that are completely different. I take those two points together and I don't think he can win the race and I don't think he can be in that top-five.<\/p>\n1. Al Riffa (19)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n2. Buckaroo (12)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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3. Arapaho (15)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n4. Vauban (2)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n5. Chevalier Rose (5)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n6. Presage Nocturne (9)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n7. Middle Earth (13)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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8. Meydaan (22)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n9. Absurde (4)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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10. Flatten The Curve (17)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/c4e65ed3-3a6c-4596-bdc6-1b6e99e256af-1-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n11. Land Legend (16)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n12. Smokin Romans (11)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
![\"Smokin'](\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2b4a6d37-b9b0-4ad6-8799-0653d8f58cd6-1-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n13. Changingoftheguard (24)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n14. Half Yours (8)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n15. More Felons (23)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
![\"More](\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/fe572d21-a125-4c4e-af05-00a79826dc01-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n16. Onesmoothoperator (6)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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17. Furthur (7)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n18. Parchment Party (3)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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