{"id":344161,"date":"2023-11-04T23:25:25","date_gmt":"2023-11-05T00:25:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/?p=344161"},"modified":"2023-11-05T04:04:50","modified_gmt":"2023-11-05T04:04:50","slug":"massive-question-mark-experts-emphatic-cup-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/?p=344161","title":{"rendered":"&#039;Massive question mark&#039;: Expert&#039;s emphatic Cup prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Melbourne Cup horses, field, form guide:<\/strong><\/em> <em><strong>SIMON O&#x27;DONNELL is a racing commentator, the founder of<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wingarathoroughbreds.com.au\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" title=\"Wingara Thoroughbreds\"><em><strong>Wingara Thoroughbreds<\/strong><\/em><\/a> <em><strong>and a former Australian international cricketer.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Once again the <a href=\"https:\/\/wwos.nine.com.au\/horse-racing\/melbourne-cup\" target=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" title=\"Melbourne Cup\">Melbourne Cup<\/a> shapes as a case of a couple of Aussie horses attempting to stave off strong international competition.<\/p>\n<p>The 3200m Flemington feature on Tuesday\ufeff boasts a strong field, including a couple of Willie Mullins stayers who I reckon will be right in the finish.<\/p>\n<p><strong>ULTIMATE GUIDE:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/wwos.nine.com.au\/horse-racing\/melbourne-cup-2023-race-time-horses-tips-field-odds-date-sweeps-prize-money-big-dance-race-day-guide\/5b7be857-2319-400d-bb3f-34e6a8a145e9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" title=\"Everything you need to know about 2023 Melbourne Cup day\ufeff\"><strong>Everything you need to know about 2023 Melbourne Cup day\ufeff<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>READ MORE:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/wwos.nine.com.au\/horse-racing\/melbourne-cup-2023-barrier-draw-field-full-results-damien-oliver-alenquer-draws-9-vauban-3\/0f438299-8e11-4456-885f-d9b1968649e6\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Full barrier draw and field for the 2023 Melbourne Cup\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>Full barrier draw and field for the 2023 Melbourne Cup<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\ufeff<strong>READ MORE:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/wwos.nine.com.au\/horse-racing\/melbourne-cup-2023-news-damien-oliver-retirement-media-puzzle-brother-death-2002-fall-broken-back-exclusive\/b8aafaf6-eab7-4123-8b5d-1b091a2f81f7\" target=\"\" title=\"Why Aussie icon kept riding after double family tragedy\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>Why Aussie icon kept riding after double family tragedy<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>READ MORE:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/wwos.nine.com.au\/horse-racing\/melbourne-cup-2023-weather-forecast-flemington-track-conditions\/11ab1cb1-72f7-4d14-8fd2-f2ce2ca4be96\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" title=\"\"><strong>How weather forecast will impact the 2023 Melbourne Cup at Flemington<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Cup favourite <strong>Vauban<\/strong> and his stablemate <strong>Absurde<\/strong> should run well, but I think there is a couple of others who will beat them home.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gold Trip<\/strong> is a year older and carrying a kilo more, but I actually think he is going better than he was last year.<\/p>\n<p><img data-id=\"3da8627d-25d0-42eb-ac20-2e6b09dc2675\" src=\"https:\/\/prod.static9.net.au\/fs\/3da8627d-25d0-42eb-ac20-2e6b09dc2675\" alt=\"Mark Zahra riding #1 Gold Trip wins race seven, the Lexus Melbourne Cup during 2022 Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington Racecourse on November 01, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Quinn Rooney\/Getty Images)\" data-width=\"4511\" data-height=\"2536\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I can&#x27;t see him not having a big say in this Melbourne Cup.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Soulcombe<\/strong> has been his own worst enemy, but with\ufeff a little less pressure of early speed in a Melbourne Cup, if he can get away OK I think he is a horse that is made to run competitively in a Melbourne Cup.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#x27;s my comprehensive analysis on every 2023 Melbourne Cup runner, as well as my final predictions below.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. \ufeffGOLD TRIP (barrier 2)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 58.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: James McDonald<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 24: 3-5-5<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 0x4135<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2000-3200m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $7,342,739<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $4.80 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffLast year&#x27;s winner, and form is even better going into the race this year. You can&#x27;t question his commitment in the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate. A year older and an extra kilo of weight I don&#x27;t think is going to worry him. One of the genuine top-three chances in the race.<\/p>\n<p><img data-video-id=\"6314718345112\" src=\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/pickerimage-61.jpg\" alt=\"Gold Trip takes out 2022 Melbourne Cup\" data-vms-id=\"ref:cl9xvhjqm00060jqn3g5i6twk\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>2. ALENQUER (barrier 9)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 56.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Michael Moroney<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Damien Oliver<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 18: 5-2-1<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 00&#215;059<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1408-2406m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $1,502,333<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $61 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffA good closing effort in the Moonee Valley Cup. His best is competitive in this race, but he would have to be at his best. I don&#x27;t think a fast-finishing three-and-a-half length loss in a Moonee Valley Cup gives me the confidence to see him winning a Melbourne Cup at his next start.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. WITHOUT A FIGHT (barrier 16)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 56.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Anthony and Sam Freedman<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Mark Zahra<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 22: 10-3-4<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: x11x61<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1800-2787m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $4,411,620<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $6.50 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffThe Caulfield Cup champ. Failed miserably in this race last year, and I think that puts a massive question mark over his ability to run two miles. A mile and a half I think is his best trip, but his question mark now is whether he can go the extra 800m. A sticky draw doesn&#x27;t help when he may have to cover some extra ground over the two miles at Flemington.<\/p>\n<p><img data-video-id=\"6339581014112\" src=\"https:\/\/vms-network-images-prod.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/2023\/10\/543682\/pickerimage.jpg\" alt=\"Without A Fight takes out Caulfield Cup\" data-vms-id=\"ref:clnznro7z00c10jp8f54h2mte\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>4. BREAKUP (barrier 18)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 55kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Tatsuya Yoshioka<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Kohei Matsuyama<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 22: 5-3-4<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 0340&#215;8<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2200-2500m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $2,200,392<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $18 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeff\ufeffAfter winning the Golden Eagle on Saturday with Obamburumai you can never underestimate any horse coming from this racing jurisdiction. They have the best quality stayers in the world racing in Japan week in, week out. This guy finished the Caulfield Cup solidly, but I think will actually get better over the two miles. I have no problem in having confidence he can get a top-five finish.<\/p>\n<p><strong>5. VAUBAN (barrier 3)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 55kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Willie Mullins<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Ryan Moore<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 14: 7-3-1<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 34211x<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2200-3382m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $788,178<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $3.50 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffDrawn well in gate three. Has been the hot topic of conversation ever since he arrived in Australia. His last 12 months on the racetrack, both over jumps and on the flat, have been nothing short of superb, and Willie Mullins knows the type of horse it takes to be competitive in a Melbourne Cup. Expect him to be right in the finish.<\/p>\n<p><img data-id=\"3c2cfed2-bccd-4c61-8cc7-f436ffbd2cd5\" src=\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/3c2cfed2-bccd-4c61-8cc7-f436ffbd2cd5-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Vauban (FR) during Spring Racing Carnival Trackwork at Flemington Racecourse\" data-width=\"5443\" data-height=\"3062\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>6. SOULCOMBE (barrier 4)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 53.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Chris Waller<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Joao Moreira<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 15: 5-1-1<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 2&#215;1437<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1700-2787m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $792,306<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $10 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffThe barrier is the key issue with this fellow, but is a genuine hope. Has been bred to run these sort of trips, he&#x27;s been in excellent form but his barrier manners have let him down each start this preparation. If Moreira can get him away cleanly, he&#x27;s a genuine chance of winning the Melbourne Cup.<\/p>\n<p><strong>7. ABSURDE (barrier 8)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 53kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Willie Mullins<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Zac Purton<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 15: 4-6-2<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 7&#215;1261<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2000-4023m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $704,905<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $19 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffComes through a last-start win in the Ebor which has always been great form for the Melbourne Cup over the journey. Not as high-profile as Vauban but will be expertly conditioned to run the two miles, and I think bringing Ebor form in, the trainer, and a good draw is going to see Absurde being very competitive in this year&#x27;s event.<\/p>\n<p><img data-video-id=\"6340473295112\" src=\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/hawaiiii.png\" alt=\"Golden Eagle headed to Japan \" data-vms-id=\"ref:clojn05pa00ez0js3rj39gd9a\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>8. RIGHT YOU ARE (barrier 15)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 53kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: John Allen<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 26: 10-4-4<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 1&#215;2505<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1410-2400m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $1,095,805<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $51 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffRan out of his skin in the Caulfield Cup, a superb effort from him. One of the two Australian bred horses in the race. Expect him to do what he always does and give them his best. I&#x27;m just not sure the class is there for a top-three finish, but expect him to be in the first 10.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\ufeff9. VOW AND DECLARE (barrier 19)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 53kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Danny O&#x27;Brien<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Billy Egan<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 37: 5-7-4<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 60&#215;022<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1800-3200m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $7,103,920<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $26 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffThe second of the Australian bred runners, a former Melbourne Cup winner, his fourth appearance here. In really vintage form leading into the race, but I think since his 2019 victory the race has moved on a little. A competitive effort yes, a winning chance no.<\/p>\n<p><img data-video-id=\"6100792581001\" src=\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/pickerImage-11.jpg\" alt=\"Vow and Declare wins Melbourne Cup\" data-vms-id=\"ref:ck2mavhee00440gqm89fhggdo\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>10. CLEVELAND (barrier 23)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 52kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Kris Lees<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Michael Dee<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 15: 3-3-0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: x49621<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1811-3749m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $841,873<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $31 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffAnother of the Irish-bred gallopers and is coming off a win in the Mooney Valley Cup last start which was impressive. Hit the line really strongly and had impressive sectionals over the last 600m in the Moonee Valley Cup. Has the master colours of Lloyd Williams to carry, which that in itself gives him an excellent chance of being competitive in a Melbourne Cup. I expect him to be somewhere thereabouts.<\/p>\n<p><strong>11. ASHRUN (barrier 11)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 51.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Kerrin McEvoy<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 17: 4-3-1<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 10&#215;762<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2200-2500m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $578,819<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $41 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffHas had a number of soundness issues of recent times. He&#x27;s basically on the comeback trail, his effort in the Geelong Cup was outstanding for the racing he&#x27;s been able to do in recent times. He has class, I&#x27;m just not sure whether he can be conditioned enough to be a top chance in the Melbourne Cup this year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>12. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (barrier 12)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 51.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Phillip Stokes<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Daniel Stackhouse<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 27: 7-1-2<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 0x0074<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1600-3200m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $798,642<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $81 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffRan a top-10 finish in last year&#x27;s Melbourne Cup. A horse that genuinely stays the two miles, but whether he has the class to improve on last year&#x27;s effort to be a top-three finish will be his challenge. Trained differently this year with a lighter build-up to the race, trying to keep his legs a little fresher will genuinely give him his best chance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-video-id=\"6340466802112\" src=\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/pickerimage-12.jpg\" alt=\"Oliver takes out Lexus Archer Stakes\" data-vms-id=\"ref:clojenbzf00ez0jo1f077kvq5\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>13. OKITA SOUSHI (barrier 20)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 51.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Joseph O&#x27;Brien<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Dylan Gibbons<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 13: 4-2-3<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 115130<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2149-3219m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $181,538<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $81 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffWas disappointing in the Caulfield Cup, and I think that can be forgivable for an international horse having his first run in Australia. He is a better horse than that. He&#x27;s run a placing in an Irish St Ledger, and that form gives him a genuine opportunity to be competitive, and you can never underestimate any of the O&#x27;Brien stables coming over from Ireland.<\/p>\n<p><strong>14. SHERAZ (barrier 22)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 51.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Chris Waller<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Beau Mertens<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 23: 4-5-2<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 5&#215;0808<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2200-3000m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $645,502<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $101 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffA horse that appreciates some give in the ground generally. I would question he has the class to run in the top three of a Melbourne Cup, but could possibly poke his nose into some prizemoney with a top-10 finish.<\/p>\n<p><img data-id=\"cf6b43dc-f95a-493b-ba32-1946681557b8\" src=\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cf6b43dc-f95a-493b-ba32-1946681557b8\" alt=\"Chris Waller\" data-width=\"1396\" data-height=\"785\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>15. LASTOTCHKA (barrier 21)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 51kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Craig Williams<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 12: 4-2-1<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 1&#215;2341<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1800-3100m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $292,365<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $26 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffA mare bred in France, now trained by Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr. There&#x27;s not a lot to this mare, she&#x27;s small, but is a very sweet mover which helps her cover the ground well. A lot will depend on how she&#x27;s settled into the Australian environment, because she needs everything going her way with the physical challenges in front of her. She&#x27;s got a good rider on board, distance shouldn&#x27;t be a burden, and if she runs to her best can be very competitive.<\/p>\n<p><strong>16. MAGICAL LAGOON (barrier 7)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 51kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Chris Waller<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Mark Du Plessis<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 13: 3-1-0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 06&#215;906<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1609-2414m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $778,496<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $126 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffAnother coming through a brave Geelong Cup run last start. Her form prior to that was well below what I think is required to be competitive in a Melbourne Cup. Trained by Chris Waller means she will be every opportunity to be conditioned to run the two miles, the class is my question mark.<\/p>\n<p><strong>17. MILITARY MISSION (barrier 5)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 51kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Rachel King<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 27: 7-5-3<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 920141<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1900-2400m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $798,895<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $34 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffThey will use that barrier and are likely to lead the race, which is typical pattern for the Waterhouse-Bott stable. Will be hard fit. Has won a Newcastle Cup and shown a nice turn of foot. This is a different class of race, and I do still have a slight question mark over his ability to run the two miles.<\/p>\n<p><img data-id=\"72d8a52c-35cf-448e-bc77-9e50c69b914a\" src=\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/72d8a52c-35cf-448e-bc77-9e50c69b914a-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Champion trainer Gai Waterhouse keeps an eye over trackwork.\" data-width=\"4355\" data-height=\"2903\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>18. SERPENTINE (barrier 1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 51kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Jye McNeil<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 21: 3-3-1<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 129243<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2012-2420m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $919,079<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $61 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffAn English Derby winner in his early career in the UK. Has been honest this preparation without really having the turn of foot to put paid to a race at any stage building into this Melbourne Cup. I think he can be competitive in a solidly-run race, but I don&#x27;t know whether he has the class to knock over the better chances for a top-three finish.<\/p>\n<p><strong>19. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE (barrier 6)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 51kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Liam Howley<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Craig Newitt<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 13: 2-2-1<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 2&#215;0908<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1500m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $687,700<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $126 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffBart Cummings run two starts back was OK, the Geelong Cup run was probably just below fair. Would have to turn around his form quite significantly to be competitive in this.<\/p>\n<p><img data-video-id=\"6340472797112\" src=\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/derbyyy.png\" alt=\"Photo finish reveals Derby winner\" data-vms-id=\"ref:clojmajnv00fr0jmt9jxz76tx\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>20. MORE FELONS (barrier 24)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 50.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Chris Waller<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Jamie Kah<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 14: 4-2-0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 657285<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1609-3381m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $193,746<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $34 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffAnother with strong Geelong Cup form coming into this race. Geelong Cup form is generally held in high regard for the Melbourne Cup. Has been well beaten by some of his other overseas competitors in this race, which tends me to think his chances are limited to win this year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>21. FUTURE HISTORY (barrier 13)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 50kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Hollie Doyle<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 16: 6-4-1<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 721213<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1800-2520m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $585,188<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $26 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffA good win in the Bart Cummings to give him his golden ticket to the Melbourne Cup two starts back. A solid effort in the Moonee Valley Cup, his last outing prior to this race. The Maher-Eustace camp are in scintillating form as they always are come carnival time, and he will be trained to the minute to give him his best chance of showing his maximum ability, which he needs to take into this race to be competitive.<\/p>\n<p><img data-id=\"f765ae43-cd9a-46d3-bde2-7d783e879e5b\" src=\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/f765ae43-cd9a-46d3-bde2-7d783e879e5b-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Future History (GB) ridden by Craig Williams wins the The Lexus Bart Cummings at Flemington Racecourse on October 07, 2023 in Flemington, Australia. (Photo by Reg Ryan\/Racing Photos)\" data-width=\"3020\" data-height=\"2014\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>22. INTERPRETATION (barrier 13)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 50kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Teo Nugent<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 16: 4-1-2<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: x32591<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2012-2816m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $587,850<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $81 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffHas a great profile from a breeding perspective to win this race &#8211; by Galileo out of a lovely staying family in France. Didn&#x27;t get through the race in 2022, but showed he was back to his best by winning the Bendigo Cup last start. His best form genuinely required to be competitive here, and whether the Bendigo Cup has turned him around enough to give a bold showing here is hard to recommend.<\/p>\n<p><strong>23. KALAPOUR (barrier 14)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 50kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Kris Lees<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Zac Lloyd<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 19: 5-3-4<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 3L7331<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1500-2551m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $587,076<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $61 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeffWinner of the Lexus on Saturday. I think as the years have gone on it&#x27;s become harder and harder to run on Saturday and be competitive on Tuesday. He looked brilliant in the mounting yard on Saturday and ran accordingly. A big challenge from Kris Lees now to get him up three days later to be competitive in a Melbourne Cup.<\/p>\n<p><img data-id=\"87c46588-1658-453a-b1c0-4d539d8a5dee\" src=\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/87c46588-1658-453a-b1c0-4d539d8a5dee-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - NOVEMBER 04: : Damien Oliver riding Kalapour wins Race 2, the Lexus Archer Stakes during Derby Day at Flemington Racecourse on November 04, 2023 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Asanka Ratnayake\/Getty Images)\" data-width=\"4863\" data-height=\"3242\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>24. TRUE MARVEL (barrier 10)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight<\/strong>: 50kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer<\/strong>: Matthew Smith<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey<\/strong>: Ben Thompson<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career<\/strong>: 53: 8-7-5<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 138080<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2100-3800m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $766,340<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: $126 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: \ufeff\ufeffDrawn OK in barrier 10 for Matthew Smith. Placed in a Sydney Cup, competitive in a Brisbane Cup. But his form this preparation looks to be well short of a horse that could take out the 2023 Melbourne Cup.<\/p>\n<h2>SIMON O&#x27;DONNELL&#x27;S 2023 MELBOURNE CUP TIP<\/h2>\n<p><strong>1st<\/strong> Gold Trip <strong>2nd<\/strong> Soulcombe <strong>3rd<\/strong> Vauban <strong>4th<\/strong> Absurde<\/p>\n<p><strong>How the race will play out<\/strong>: \ufeffI think everyone will be looking for Gai&#x27;s horse <strong>Military Mission<\/strong> to lead.<\/p>\n<p>There will be other horses that will have no problems sitting on speed &#8211; some of those who don&#x27;t have as much chance, they have to put them into the race.<\/p>\n<p>There will be enough early pressure, but I think our winner is going to come \ufefffrom three to six pairs back, so just off the leading pack to midfield.<\/p>\n<p>I think it&#x27;s going to be a really solidly run Melbourne Cup, so if anything has a question mark over its ability to run two miles that will come to the fore.<\/p>\n<p>That&#x27;s where I am with <strong>Without A Fight<\/strong>. Some of these horses &#8211; and he is one of them &#8211; with a tough-run two mile I&#x27;m not sure they are going to be in the final 200m.<\/p>\n<p>I&#x27;m sticking to the old faithfuls because I think it will be a really tough two miles.\ufeff<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Melbourne Cup horses, field, form guide: SIMON O&#x27;DONNELL is a racing commentator, the founder of Wingara Thoroughbreds and a former Australian international cricketer. Once again <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/?p=344161\" title=\"&#039;Massive question mark&#039;: Expert&#039;s emphatic Cup prediction\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":344156,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/344161"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=344161"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/344161\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":344169,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/344161\/revisions\/344169"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/344156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=344161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=344161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=344161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}