{"id":152565,"date":"2021-10-31T02:24:52","date_gmt":"2021-10-31T03:24:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/?p=152565"},"modified":"2021-10-31T05:57:04","modified_gmt":"2021-10-31T05:57:04","slug":"why-our-expert-is-betting-against-cup-favourite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/?p=152565","title":{"rendered":"Why our expert is betting against Cup favourite"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Melbourne Cup horses, field, form guide:<\/strong><\/em> <em><strong>SIMON O&#x27;DONNELL is a racing commentator, the founder of<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wingarathoroughbreds.com.au\/\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Wingara Thoroughbreds\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em><strong>Wingara Thoroughbreds<\/strong><\/em><\/a> <em><strong>and a former Australian international cricketer.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>All the attention ahead of this year&#x27;s Melbourne Cup is on Peter Moody&#x27;s outstanding new superstar, Incentivise.<\/p>\n<p>It looks like the gelding will start the race as the shortest-priced favourite since Phar Lap, which is quite incredible.<\/p>\n<p>For me, though, there&#x27;s enough question marks around the horse that I&#x27;m happy to put my money elsewhere for the Cup.<\/p>\n<p>The 57kg Incentivise will carry, coming off what has been a really testing preparation, and then drawing barrier 16&#8230; he&#x27;s a superstar if he can win, an absolute superstar.<\/p>\n<p>I have that question mark. His rise has been so quick, and he&#x27;s deserved the rise after winning in particular the Turnbull and the Caulfield Cup. You can&#x27;t take better form into this race.<\/p>\n<p><img data-id=\"785f7592-65d0-49a7-bff7-1f7b06219a6c\" src=\"https:\/\/prod.static9.net.au\/fs\/785f7592-65d0-49a7-bff7-1f7b06219a6c\" alt=\"Brett Prebble riding Incentivise winning the Caulfield Cup.\" data-width=\"4443\" data-height=\"3367\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But now carrying 57kg he&#x27;s got to measure up to the greats to win the Melbourne Cup, and I wonder if it&#x27;s a year too early for him to do that.<\/p>\n<p>But nothing would surprise me, because he just keeps stepping up.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#x27;s my take on every runner, and my race tips below.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (barrier 2)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>9yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 58kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Joseph O&#x27;Brien<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Jye McNeil<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 35: 9-11-8<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: x33912<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2414m &#8211; 3218m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $5,682805<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 11 \/ 3.25 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: On form he&#x27;s going better than when he came here and won this race last year. Rises 2.5kg, but jumps from a better barrier. Genuine contender.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. INCENTIVISE (barrier 16)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>5yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 57kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Peter Moody<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Brett Prebble<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 12: 9-0-0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 111111<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1600m &#8211; 2500m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $4,643,300<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 2.50 \/ 1.56 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Extraordinary climb to success in his short career. Massive ask carrying 57kg to win this race. But as he&#x27;s shown thus far, nothing is beyond him.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. SPANISH MISSION (barrier 14)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>6yo stallion<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 57kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Andrew Balding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Craig Williams<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 12: 6-2-2<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: x25132<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2012m &#8211; 3600m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $1,174,942<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 8 \/ 2.75 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Class European act who hasn&#x27;t had an easy week leading in from a veterinary perspective. At his best will be very competitive, but a question mark lingers because of all the extra testing and procedures he has had to go through this week.<\/p>\n<p><img data-video-id=\"6279461494001\" src=\"https:\/\/vms-network-images-prod.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/2021\/10\/389761\/pickerimage.jpg\" alt=\"Great House wins way into Melbourne Cup\" data-vms-id=\"ref:ckvd7izeu00570gnv00ghtvxf\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>4. VERRY ELLEEGANT (barrier 19)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>6yo mare<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 57kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Chris Waller<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> James McDonald<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 33: 14-7-3<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 2&#215;2143<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1400m &#8211; 2400m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $9,690,744<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 14 \/ 3.75 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Superstar mare who acquitted herself very well in this race last year. Steps up 1.5kg as her Cox Plate run was solid. If she had drawn a better barrier she would be half the price she is now.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>5. EXPLOSIVE JACK (barrier 4)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>4yo stallion<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 54kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Ciaron Maher and David Eustace<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> John Allen<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 12-5-1-2<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 13&#215;950<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1600m &#8211; 2500m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $1,814,730<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 51 \/ 10 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Hasn&#x27;t hit top gear since a stunning three-year-old preparation. Should appreciate the journey, but would be a massive form reversal on what we have seen this time around.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>6. THE CHOSEN ONE (barrier 5)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>6yo stallion<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 54kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Damian Lane<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 38: 8-6-3<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 6&#215;3420<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1400m &#8211; 2400m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $1,949,671<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 51 \/ 10 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: A genuine stayer who was competitive in 2020. Enjoys a firm track which he should get on Tuesday, and should be competitive again. My question is mark is does he have that killer punch to outclass the top guns?<\/p>\n<p><img data-video-id=\"6279465230001\" src=\"https:\/\/vms-network-images-prod.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/2021\/10\/389766\/pickerimage.jpg\" alt=\"Hitotsu wins the Victoria Derby\" data-vms-id=\"ref:ckvdcg5px005f0imntx8cggb3\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>7. DELPHI (barrier 3)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>5yo stallion<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 53.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Anthony and Sam Freedman<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Damien Oliver<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 10: 5-1-0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: x64210<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1609m &#8211; 2816m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $360,841<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 41 \/ 8.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Completely upside down in the Caulfield Cup. Will be ridden a lot quieter here over the two miles. Has genuine ability to stay, but needs to settle to be competitive.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>8. OCEAN BILLY (barrier 13)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>6yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 53.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Chris Waller<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Damien Thornton<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 32: 10-1-2<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 0x5059<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1400m &#8211; 3200m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $326,452<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 101 \/ 19 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Hopefully suited better over the two miles, but I&#x27;ve not seen enough on paper to be a top-three finisher in this field.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>9. SELINO (barrier 24)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>6yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 53.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Chris Waller<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Ron Stewart<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 20: 3-5-2<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 1&#215;0840<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2815m &#8211; 3328m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $1,481,470<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 67 \/ 12 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Genuine two-miler. Won a Sydney Cup, but rises 3kg on that win. Possible top-10 finisher.<\/p>\n<p><img data-video-id=\"6277385028001\" src=\"https:\/\/vms-network-images-prod.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/2021\/10\/386950\/pickerimage.jpg\" alt=\"Incentivise takes out $5 million Caulfield Cup\" data-vms-id=\"ref:ckutf43u4000w0hs25jzplqq1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>10. JOHNNY GET ANGRY (barrier 22)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>4yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 53kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Denis Pagan<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Lachlan King (a)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 11: 1-1-2<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 1&#215;0090<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2500m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $1,268,675<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 81 \/ 15 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Form leading in has been horrible, after success in last year&#x27;s VRC Derby. All reports on trackwork have been good, but hasn&#x27;t been able to convert into race form this preparation.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>11. KNIGHTS ORDER (barrier 9)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>7yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 53kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Daniel Stackhouse<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 20: 7-0-2<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 1&#215;9097<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1990m &#8211; 3200m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $467,501<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 201 \/ 35 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Will be trained and hard-fit to run two miles. The question mark whether there&#x27;s enough class to run against the top shelf in a Melbourne Cup.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>12. PERSAN (barrier 11)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>5yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 53kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Ciaron Maher and David Eustace<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Luke Currie<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 27: 7-5-3<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 44&#215;373<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1600m &#8211; 2510m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $1,404,721<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 26 \/ 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Lovely even build-up to this year&#x27;s Melbourne Cup after a competitive effort in 2020. Expect him to be around the mark again in this year&#x27;s version of the race.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>13. CARIF (barrier 8)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>6yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 52.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Peter and Paul Snowden<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Blaike McDougall<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 37: 3-8-1<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 2&#215;4747<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1850m &#8211; 3200m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $730,285<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 201 \/ 35 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Isn&#x27;t bringing a form line into this race that I think gives him a genuine chance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-video-id=\"6279573163001\" src=\"https:\/\/vms-network-images-prod.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/2021\/10\/389832\/pickerimage.jpg\" alt=\"Casey&#x27;s praise for brave Cavallo\" data-vms-id=\"ref:ckvei47af005l0imnply33h39\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>14. MASTER OF WINE (barrier 6)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>7yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 52.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Fred Kersley<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 28: 5-5-4<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: x00030<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1400m &#8211; 2400m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $900,309<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 101 \/ 19 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Can mix his form, but is showing a little more dash this preparation than past. If he gets it right on the day can run a competitive race.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>15. PONDUS (barrier 1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>6yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 52.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Robert Hickmott<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Rachel King<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 19: 3-7-1<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 722&#215;54<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2002m &#8211; 2389m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $336,109<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 34 \/ 7 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: On the surface has been a little disappointing since arriving from Ireland. May appreciate being ridden a little quieter, and if so may compete for a top-10 finish.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>16. GRAND PROMENADE (barrier 21)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>6yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 52kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Ciaron Maher and David Eustace<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Kerrin McEvoy<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 19: 8-4-2<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 211251<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1700m &#8211; 2600m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $1,009,800<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 20 \/ 4.60 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Lovely spaced-out preparation leading into this Melbourne Cup. In the hands of very astute distance trainers. Expect him to run to the best of his abilities on Tuesday, which could generate a top-five finish.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>17. MIAMI BOUND (barrier 17)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>5yo mare<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 52kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Danny O&#x27;Brien<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Patrick Moloney<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 26: 5-0-5<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 3&#215;0095<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1400m &#8211; 2500m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $1,672,200<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 151 \/ 26 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Best form over her career has been on rain-effected ground, which it doesn&#x27;t appear she is going to get to suit on Tuesday. A genuine stayer who won last year&#x27;s Moonee Valley Cup. Track conditions will be her biggest detractor.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>18. PORT GUILLAUME (barrier 23)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>5yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 52kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Ben and JD Hayes<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Harry Coffey<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 10: 4-0-0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 0x0600<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 2000m &#8211; 2500m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $308,688<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 151 \/ 26 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Been mixing his riding tactics this preparation to figure out what best suits. Ridden quietly will give him his best chance of staying the two miles. If so, a top-10 finish could then be his best prospect if he gets it right.<\/p>\n<p><img data-video-id=\"6279572507001\" src=\"https:\/\/vms-network-images-prod.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/2021\/10\/389827\/pickerimage.jpg\" alt=\"Taylor makes key Ashes call\" data-vms-id=\"ref:ckvegctrv005c0jpfina84gsn\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>19. SHE&#x27;S IDEEL (barrier 20)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>6yo mare<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 52kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Bjorn Baker<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Craig Newitt<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 25: 6-6-5<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: x37197<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1550m &#8211; 2400m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $1,101,075<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 101 \/ 19 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Her last two starts on the surface have been disappointing after some promising Sydney form. She&#x27;s a question mark at the two miles, and the barrier draw yet another challenge.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>20. FUTURE SCORE (barrier 15)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>7yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 51.5kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Matt Cumani<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Dean Yendall<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 22: 6-2-4<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 33&#215;086<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1600m &#8211; 2600m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $565,381<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 301 \/ 46 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Had a very good profile for this race last spring, but has struggled to rekindle that form. Likes Flemington, but needs a massive form turnaround.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>21. TRALEE ROSE (barrier 12)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>5yo mare<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 51kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Symon Wilde<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Dean Holland<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 15: 6-4-2<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 4&#215;3321<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1700m &#8211; 2800m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $744,725<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 16\/4 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Genuine top-three contender. Two miles should be to her benefit, and the stable are in great form. Far from the worst.<\/p>\n<p><img data-video-id=\"6279576444001\" src=\"https:\/\/vms-network-images-prod.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/2021\/10\/389833\/pickerimage.jpg\" alt=\"Mark Taylor breaks down Australia&#x27;s T20 loss to England\" data-vms-id=\"ref:ckveiu4vt006i0imuye8u4tov\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>22. FLOATING ARTIST (barrier 10)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>6yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 50kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Ciaron Maher and David Eustace<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Teodore Nugent<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 15: 5-2-1<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 011132<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1600m &#8211; 2406m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $479,018<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 18 \/ 4.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: There have been big raps on this fellow right throughout the build-up to this Melbourne Cup. Stable are very happy to have him in the field. If he can get the two-mile, with very consistent form leading in, he may surprise.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>23. GREAT HOUSE (barrier 7)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>5yo gelding<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 50kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Ciaron Maher and David Eustace<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Michael Dee<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 15: 5-2-3<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: 751551<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1500m &#8211; 2500m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $512,990<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 26 \/ 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: Winner of The Hotham and the final ticket into the race. Genuine stayer. Not sure he has the class to win this race, but a genuine top-10 contender.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>24. SIR LUCAN (barrier 18)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>4yo stallion<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weight:<\/strong> 50kg<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trainer:<\/strong> Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jockey:<\/strong> Glen Boss<\/p>\n<p><strong>Career:<\/strong> 8: 2-1-0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last 6<\/strong>: x81248<\/p>\n<p><strong>Win range<\/strong>: 1609m &#8211; 2615m<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong>: $152,926<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odds<\/strong>: 21 \/ 4.80 (courtesy of Bet365 as of midday Sunday)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Simon O&#x27;Donnell says<\/strong>: May be the surprise packet. His three-year-old European form brings back memories of previous northern hemisphere winners. Big-race rider on board. Could be in the finish.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>SIMON O&#x27;DONNELL&#x27;S MELBOURNE CUP TIP<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1st Twilight Payment, 2nd Verry Elleegant, 3rd Tralee Rose, 4th Sir Lucan<\/p>\n<p><strong>How it will play out<\/strong>: I think Twilight Payment will be up towards the front, I don&#x27;t think he will necessarily lead because he&#x27;s now carrying more weight.<\/p>\n<p><img data-id=\"6124bce7-c7ac-4710-8efd-075e9a35594e\" src=\"https:\/\/prod.static9.net.au\/fs\/6124bce7-c7ac-4710-8efd-075e9a35594e\" alt=\"Jye McNeil returns to the mounting yard aboard Twilight Payment after winning the 2020 Melbourne Cup.\" data-width=\"4000\" data-height=\"2665\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Whatever does lead they will be trying to surge a lot earlier than usual to make it a really tough-run two mile.<\/p>\n<p>It will be interesting, the tactics, because there&#x27;s not that European influence here this year. There&#x27;s only two overseas-trained horses here in Twilight Payment and Spanish Mission.<\/p>\n<p>There will be enough local horses and local content in our manner of racing that tactically it could be very different, the Melbourne Cup this year.<\/p>\n<p>If it becomes a fit sprint it brings a lot of ours into it &#8211; Verry Elleegant for example. Some of those horses with a little more brilliance, it puts them right into the race where it hasn&#x27;t taken the edge off them in running, and they&#x27;ve still got something to give in that last 600m.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>For a daily dose of the best of the breaking news and exclusive content from Wide World of Sports, subscribe to our newsletter by<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/login.nine.com.au\/login?client_id=wwos&amp;redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwwos.nine.com.au&amp;newsletter=true\" title=\"clicking here!\"><em><strong>clicking here!<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Melbourne Cup horses, field, form guide: SIMON O&#x27;DONNELL is a racing commentator, the founder of Wingara Thoroughbreds and a former Australian international cricketer. All the <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/?p=152565\" title=\"Why our expert is betting against Cup favourite\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152565"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=152565"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152565\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":152567,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152565\/revisions\/152567"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=152565"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=152565"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportinfo.pro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=152565"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}